AR 616 Futures and Foresight Select Term:
This module covers a range of conceptual and methodological approaches to futures and foresight. Broadly speaking, there are three types of question we can ask ourselves about the future: What do we think is likely to happen? What do we want (or not want) to have happen? What could possibly happen - whether we like it or not, and irrespective of likelihood - and if it happened it could potentially be important to the success or failure of our endeavours? These three question types map loosely onto projective, normative and exploratory approaches to futures and foresight. Within the projective category we cover horizon scanning, trends analysis and quantitative modelling. Within the normative category we cover a range of approaches to visioning, associated mapping of values, priorities and goals, as well as back-casting. Within the exploratory category we cover a range of techniques for exploratory scenario development, both inductive and deductive approaches, the two-axes approach, cross impact analysis, morphological analysis, and field anomaly relaxation. The 3 Horizons approach, which can be used in multiple ways to delve into all 3 types of questions is also explored. We also cover a range of participatory techniques that are useful across these three spheres including the Delphi Technique, causal loop diagrams, influence diagrams, fuzzy cognitive maps and participatory development of system dynamics models.
SU Credits : 3.000
ECTS Credit : 12.000
Prerequisite : -
Corequisite : -