Brown Bag Seminar by Aytuğ Şaşmaz (Bryn Mawr College)

Abstract: Is the Turkish society, particularly at the individual level, going through a process of secularization or desecularization? This paper investigates recent shifts in religiosity and support for secularism in Turkey under prolonged Islamist rule. Drawing on two waves of original nationally representative surveys conducted in 2019 and 2024 across the same districts and neighborhoods, we use pseudo-panel and experimental methods to track change and explore its drivers. We find modest secularization at the individual level, particularly in support for secular governance, and decreased religiosity, accompanied by polarization in both measures. Further exploration shows that worsening economic well-being is strongly associated with growing support for secularism, suggesting a political backlash against the ruling party. Trauma from the COVID- 19 pandemic and the 2023 earthquakes also correlate with increased support for secular governance, though these effects are more tentative. A survey experiment reveals that overt anti-secular statements by elites can trigger a secular backlash. These findings suggest the emergence of a pragmatic, politically driven secularism in contemporary Turkey.