ECON Seminar / Riccardo Franceschin (Sabancı University)

 

Migrants often exhibit different fertility patterns compared to natives but tend to converge toward native fertility levels over time. This paper examines the role of descriptive social norms in driving this convergence through a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) that delivers an information intervention to Syrian refugees in Turkiye. We survey 1,600 migrants about their fertility choices, intentions, and beliefs. Participants are divided into three groups: one-third receive information about the fertility choices and intentions of Syrian migrants in Turkiye (T1), one-third receive the same information about Turkish natives (T2), and one-third receive no information (control group). Both treatments lead to an immediate reduction in the perceived ideal number of children among Turkish natives, with T2 having a larger effect. Additionally, T2 reduces short- and medium-term intentions to have a child by between 1/3 and 1/5 of the control group's mean. Both treatments—especially T2—increase the likelihood of fearing social stigma for having too many children. The effects on fertility intentions are stronger among men and religious individuals, while the effects on perceived stigma are more pronounced among religious and highly conformist individuals.