Brown Bag Seminar by Ömer Zarplı (Bilkent University)

"A Rebel with a Sanction: UN Sanctions on Non-State Armed Groups and Civil War Duration" (joint work with Merve Keskin)

Abstract: "How do economic sanctions against non-state armed groups (NSAGs) affect civil conflict duration? Since the end of the Cold War, approximately half of the UN sanctions have targeted NSAGs. Yet studies that examine the links between sanctions and civil wars focus almost exclusively on economic sanctions that are imposed on governments. We have limited systematic evidence on whether sanctions targeting NSAGs are effective in resolving armed conflicts. We argue that sanctions against rebel groups inadvertently extend conflict duration. The enforcement problems associated with sanctions exacerbate uncertainties about future relative power between the combatants. This, in turn, creates incentives to continue to fight in order to accrue more information. However, we expect the conflict-prolonging effect of sanctions to dissipate over time as more information becomes apparent to the parties. We test these hypotheses on a sample of United Nations-authorized sanctions on rebel groups between 1990 and 2016 and find strong empirical support. The results are robust to alternative model specifications and matching techniques. Supplementary analyses aimed at testing our theoretical mechanism from a sub-sample of African civil conflicts further complement our findings.”

Bio: Omer Zarpli is an Assistant Professor at Bilkent University in Ankara. He received his Ph.D in Political Science from the University of Pittsburgh in December 2021. His research examines questions at the intersection of international relations and comparative politics. He is interested in the role of domestic politics and public opinion in economic sanctions, intra- and inter-state conflict, and human rights. His research uses observational and experimental methods. His work is published or forthcoming at International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Peace Research, International Interactions, Conflict Management and Peace Science, and Research & Politics.